Key Takeaways
- Trinidad & Tobago: the Caribbean's dominant LNG exporter (Atlantic LNG, Point Fortin), open to US investors, no sanctions — but its own gas reserves have been declining for years.
- Venezuela: holds the largest natural gas reserves in the Western Hemisphere and the world's largest proven oil reserves, but OFAC sanctions gate almost every transaction.
- The Dragon field (4.2 trillion cubic feet) sits just 17 km from Trinidad's coast. Shell and Trinidad's National Gas Company (NGC) hold a 30-year Venezuelan license to develop it and pipe the gas to Trinidad's existing plants.
- Washington has toggled the deal on and off: authorized in October 2023, revoked in April 2024, then reissued in staged form around October 2025 — negotiations run through April 2026 under the current license.
- This is not a symmetric rivalry. It is a supply relationship: Trinidad needs Venezuelan gas to keep its LNG trains running near capacity; Venezuela needs Trinidad's existing infrastructure because it has none of its own for exporting offshore gas.
Contents
At-a-Glance Comparison
Venezuela and Trinidad and Tobago are separated by about 11 kilometers of open water at their closest point, yet their energy positions could not be more different. Venezuela sits on reserves it cannot fully monetize under sanctions. Trinidad built the infrastructure to monetize gas — and is now running low on its own supply.
| Factor | Venezuela | Trinidad & Tobago |
|---|---|---|
| Population | ~28 million | ~1.4 million |
| Proven Oil Reserves | ~303B barrels — largest in the world | A small fraction of Venezuela's total, and declining |
| Natural Gas Reserves | Largest in the Western Hemisphere | Mature fields; output has fallen for over a decade |
| Energy Export Model | Crude oil via PDVSA; no LNG export capacity | LNG, ammonia, and methanol via Atlantic LNG / Point Fortin |
| US Sanctions | Yes — OFAC; relief via General Licenses | None — open to US persons and companies |
| GDP Growth (recent) | Recovering off a low base | Slowed to a four-year low of 0.8% in 2025 |
Sources: EIA Venezuela · EIA Trinidad and Tobago · Trinidad & Tobago Ministry of Finance
The Dragon Gas Deal
The Dragon field is an offshore natural gas deposit holding an estimated 4.2 trillion cubic feet of gas, sitting in Venezuelan waters roughly 17 kilometers from Trinidad's coastline. Venezuela has no LNG export plant of its own, so the cheapest way to monetize Dragon's gas is to pipe it to Trinidad's existing Point Fortin liquefaction facilities rather than build new infrastructure from scratch.
Shell and Trinidad's state-owned National Gas Company (NGC) hold a 30-year license from the Venezuelan government, granted in December 2023, to develop Dragon and build a subsea pipeline tying it back to Trinidad. First-phase production is targeted at roughly 185 million cubic feet of gas per day.
The deal's US authorization has been anything but stable. OFAC first licensed the project in October 2023, revoked that license in April 2024 as Washington hardened its Venezuela stance, then issued a new staged authorization around October 2025. The current license lets Shell and Trinidad negotiate with Venezuela and PDVSA through April 2026, and it makes US company participation mandatory in the eventual project structure.
Here is the information-gain insight. This is not a simple bilateral trade — it is a three-stage license with an April 2026 checkpoint, meaning the deal's legal status could change again before gas ever flows. Investors and energy buyers tracking this story need to watch OFAC's licensing calendar as closely as the pipeline construction timeline. Track the underlying authorization mechanics on our OFAC General License 41 vs 46 guide, which covers the same oil-and-gas licensing pattern OFAC uses for Chevron's Venezuela operations.
Sources: EnergyNow — Shell/Trinidad OFAC license · Global Energy Monitor — Dragon Gas Pipeline
Oil & Gas Reserves Compared
Venezuela's reserves dwarf Trinidad's on every measure, but reserves alone do not decide who controls the region's gas trade.
| Reserve Metric | Venezuela | Trinidad & Tobago |
|---|---|---|
| Proven Oil Reserves | ~303B barrels (#1 globally) | A small fraction of Venezuela's; long-declining |
| Proven Natural Gas | Largest in the Western Hemisphere | Mature basins; new finds (e.g. BP's Cypre field) only partly offset decline |
| State Energy Company | PDVSA | Heritage Petroleum (formed 2018 after Petrotrin's dissolution) |
| Export Infrastructure | Crude terminals only; no LNG plant | Atlantic LNG at Point Fortin — the region's largest LNG complex |
| Foreign Operator Role | Chevron under OFAC license; Shell pending Dragon approval | BP, Shell, and Woodside all operate offshore fields freely |
Venezuela's advantage is entirely in the ground. Trinidad's advantage is entirely in infrastructure and market access — decades of LNG, ammonia, and methanol plants that Venezuela never built. That mismatch is exactly why the Dragon deal makes economic sense for both sides. See our deeper coverage of Venezuela natural gas and Venezuela oil reserves.
Sources: EIA Trinidad and Tobago · Trinidad Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries
Economy & Energy Sector
Trinidad and Tobago is a small, open, energy-dependent economy that has run an investable oil and gas sector for over a century. Venezuela is a much larger economy still working to rebuild the sector Trinidad never lost.
Trinidad: mature, open, but running low on its own gas
Real GDP growth slowed to a four-year low of 0.8% in 2025, reflecting the strain of maturing gas fields on an economy built around them. Heritage Petroleum, formed after the 2018 dissolution of the long-running state company Petrotrin, now runs upstream oil production, while BP's Cypre gas field came online to help offset the broader supply decline. Trinidad carries no US sanctions and its stock exchange lists regional banks and energy names openly to foreign investors.
Venezuela: recovering output, sanctions-gated access
Venezuela's oil sector is recovering off a deeply depressed base, with output rising under Chevron's OFAC-authorized operations. But natural gas monetization has lagged even further behind oil, because Venezuela has never built LNG export capacity — a gap the Dragon deal is specifically designed to close by routing gas through Trinidad instead. Start with our pillar guide on how to invest in Venezuela and our Venezuela Hydrocarbons Law guide for the legal framework.
Sources: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago · T&T Ministry of Finance — Review of the Economy
Investment Access Compared
Access is the clearest dividing line between the two. Trinidad is a normal, if small, frontier market. Venezuela requires a compliance pathway before any capital moves.
| Access Route | Venezuela | Trinidad & Tobago |
|---|---|---|
| Sanctions Overlay | OFAC screening required on every transaction | None |
| Equities | Caracas exchange — illiquid, no real foreign access | Trinidad & Tobago Stock Exchange — lists banks, energy, conglomerates |
| Oil & Gas Majors Exposure | Chevron via OFAC license; Shell pending Dragon approval | BP, Shell, and Woodside operate without restriction |
| Direct / FDI | Via OFAC General Licenses; energy limited to authorized parties | Open; standard frontier-market due diligence only |
| Sovereign Bonds | Defaulted VENZ/PDVSA bonds — OTC, OFAC-gated, mid-restructuring | Performing sovereign debt; freely traded |
The Dragon deal is the exception, not the rule. It exists specifically because OFAC carved out a license for it — most Venezuela energy transactions still require the same case-by-case authorization. Model potential returns with our Venezuela investment ROI calculator before committing capital to either market.
Risk Comparison
| Risk Factor | Venezuela | Trinidad & Tobago |
|---|---|---|
| Sanctions Risk | High — OFAC overlay on every transaction | None |
| Resource Depletion Risk | Low — vast reserves largely untapped | High — the entire economic case for the Dragon deal |
| Policy Reversal Risk | High — sanctions have toggled on/off before (2022–2024 precedent) | Low — no comparable sanctions exposure |
| Liquidity Risk | Very high — no clean public instrument | Moderate — small but functioning local market |
| Counterparty Risk | High — every deal needs SDN screening + OFAC counsel | Standard frontier-market diligence only |
The Verdict
Trinidad & Tobago: The Accessible Hub That Needs Venezuela's Gas
Trinidad is the open, investable side of this relationship — but its own reserves are declining, which is exactly why the Dragon deal matters to its economy. It suits investors who want established LNG and petrochemical exposure with no sanctions overlay, while watching the Dragon deal's OFAC calendar for upside.
- Investors wanting open, established Caribbean energy exposure
- Frontier-market allocators comfortable with small-market liquidity
- Energy buyers tracking LNG supply security in the Caribbean basin
Venezuela: The Reserve Giant That Needs Trinidad's Pipeline
Venezuela holds the resource; Trinidad holds the infrastructure to sell it. That is the whole Dragon field story. Venezuela suits patient, contrarian capital with legal support — not a click-to-buy allocation, but a bigger prize if the OFAC license structure holds through 2026 and beyond.
- Contrarians positioning ahead of further sanctions relief
- Strategic/energy investors seeking authorized Venezuela exposure
- Anyone modeling Caribbean gas-supply security over the next decade
Bottom line on Venezuela vs. Trinidad and Tobago: this is not a "which is the better bet" comparison so much as a supply relationship. Trinidad needs Venezuela's gas to keep its LNG trains full; Venezuela needs Trinidad's pipeline and plants because it has no export infrastructure of its own. Compare Venezuela with other oil-producing peers in Venezuela vs. Nigeria and Venezuela vs. Guyana.